For about 20 years, residents of Cobourg and nearby have been asking for a Go Bus service to Toronto. In 2020, Northumberland County decided to advocate for this and hired AECOM to carry out a business case study. At the time, MPP David Piccini lobbied Metrolinx but they said “that given the length of the route and the relatively low densities, none of the options perform well from a Revenue/Cost ratio stand point. They are modelling around 20% revenue coverage of costs, which puts these options in the lowest performing GO bus route revenue categories.” Then in April 2022 the Province and County announced a trial service – the Durham line – connecting Cobourg and Port Hope to Oshawa Go Station four times a day. Another route – the “Northumberland Line” – connected Campbellford, Brighton and Colborne to Cobourg.
The idea was to try out the idea for a one year trial – it started September 2022.
Service to be Discontinued
In an announcement on July 3, the County announced that the service would be discontinued effective August 2, 2024 although it had lasted longer than the one year initial plan.
In December 2023, the Northumberland line was discontinued due to low ridership interest and costs associated with operation. At that time, County Council extended the timelines for evaluation of the Durham Line — the more active line — to determine if a reduced service would be more financially sustainable.
Further, “Council approved an extension of funding until 2026, pending a review of updated trends in June 2024 to confirm financial feasibility. Based on this June review, which noted continued low ridership and a high cost to subsidize the service, it was determined that the operation was no longer sustainable.”
No ridership numbers have been provided but they would likely be very low.
The County’s Dan Borowec says that “Ridership participation has been invaluable in understanding local transportation needs, and we will continue to investigate alternative transportation options in Northumberland County for residents, workers, and employers.”
But I would not expect a replacement service anytime soon.
Resources
Previous Reports on Cobourg Blog
- Northumberland County Pilot Bus Service – 14 Sept 2022
- Go Bus coming to Cobourg – 19 April 2022
- Go Bus Service to Cobourg – 15 Jan 2020
County Links – on County Site
- AECOM Business Case Study – no clear recommendation – 40 pages
- Announcement by County – 3 July 2024
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Is government finally realizing that there are only so many tax dollars and that they can only be stretched do far? That we need value for how the money is spent? That tax money is not limitless and has to be spent in an economically feasible manner? Wouldn’t that be amazing! On another note revenue/ridership must have been really low for this service to be cancelled.
Thank you Mr. Draper,
Northumberland County Council has made the decision to conclude the Commuter Connect pilot service, effective August 2, 2024.
”I know for the loyal riders who depend on this shuttle bus service this will be disappointing news. The decision to discontinue the Commuter Connect service was not made lightly,” states Warden Brian Ostrander.
“Unfortunately, due to low ridership numbers and the cost to subsidize the rider service, we have determined that the operation will not be sustainable beyond the pilot phase.” Warden Brian Ostrander.
Another myth put to bed – “Get the Go train and all will be well for commuters!”
An actual train would do exceptionally well. Get on it once and enjoy a stress-free train ride into the city. The thought of riding in a little van/bus down the chaotic 401 to get to the Oshawa GO station and then having to get off of it and board a train sounds downright dreadful, not to mention the travel time must have been bordering on 2 hrs.